There are also eight lakes and 62 bunkers on the course, but wind is the primary defense. Also, based on the graph, the max strokes gained is just over 1, but max strokes lost is -1.5. Scottie Scheffler 3. Jon Rahm (+700) is an unsurprising favorite with 2022 champion Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy both at +950. Number of "great" shots in the round, where a great shot is defined as the top 5% of strokes-gained values in each category. GRAYSON MURRAY: The wind bothers me when Im hitting it like I did last week when Im not compressing the ball. I won the first week I put it in, and Im just able to flight the ball so much better than I used to be able to, and the wind doesnt seem to take it as much. Add in that Zalatoris has gained strokes putting in six consecutive events and plays very well in windy conditions a likely scenario this week in Florida and he should be able to secure a second straight top-20 finish. You seem to play well in Hawaii. Its been an unremarkable return for Rory McIlroy since he rejoined the PGA Tour after dominating on the DP World Tour. Hopefully we get some wind tomorrow and see what happens. Seamus Power (1.091 sg:wind vs. 0.664 sg:total) If he gets it going with the long game, he will be a GPP winner. DANNY WILLETT: We obviously played a lot of links golf growing up, but I think the more years youre on Tour, the less you actually play in these type conditions. Apart from winning the Paul Lawrie, youve done well in a lot of events in Scotland. It features small greens and will play even smaller than the measurements indicate with fall-off areas and false fronts protecting the pin locations. Is there just something about starting the year that youre fresh? I dont know if its because playing in the UK, playing in Scotland and England and how windy it can get there and how creative you have to be when it gets windy. Robert Garrigus (-0.03 sg:wind vs. 0.524 sg:total) https://futureoffantasy.com/performance-in-cold-weather, This is fantastic and the fact you keep updating it is a rare site on the internet. McIIroy 5. Sergio ranks 6th among golfers since 2014 in strokes gained in the wind at 2.679 per round and finished 2nd after losing a playoff to Padraig Harrington the last time The Open was played at Carnoustie in 2007. The Bermuda putting surfaces have played "lightning" fast in every round since 2017. Always thought that would have been a better chance for me; usually when the conditions are crappy I do better. I have two final notes before we get into the picks. You can get started withThe Stats That Matter Mostor head to a more advanced strategy likeHow To Use Vegas Odds To Generate Your Lineup to learn more. Joel Dahmen (1.683 sg:wind vs. 1.156 sg:total) Strokes Gained Around the Green: Bermuda . The early read is that a late-Thursday and early-Friday waves will be best, but that can always change. This would be classed as a tough hole on tour. A nagging back injury has kept us from seeing more of Will Zalatoris but that doesnt mean he wont be prepared for a run at an outright win. -2018 TOC, Q. Weve talked about this about three thousand times, but just for the benefit of this time in explaining to others, you grew up in the wind, talk us through what sort of things you had to deal with to get to this point of talent in this sort of breeze. CURTIS LUCK: Fortunately, where Ive grown up in Perth, its like an extremely windy place. Can you please refresh your Performance in Cold Weather sheet? Very interesting info. Have a wonderful evening! JORDAN SPIETH: I have the last couple years. At the word row, don't row, but read the alignment. You finished tied for 2nd here a couple years ago. How were the conditions, and have you become a better player in the rain? You talk about sticking with your game plan. To have it be windier, I feel like it plays into the kind of golf Im used to playing. Do you feel like youre a good wind player? -2017 Valero, Q. I mean, the balls roll off the green; they go pretty far away. Over the three tournaments he's gained an average of 10.5 strokes gained-total per start. Ive been playing professionally for 20 years, and I know that you cant speed up, and when you take things a lot slower, I always listened to Freddie when he told me, when its breezy, swing easy. Now youve played so well over the first two days, would you like the weather to kind of stay the way it is? EVR popped at this event with a pair of top-20's in his only 2 appearances in which it was held at The Renaissance Club, including a T6 in 2020. A player with a 100 Index would have a Course Handicap of 14 and would get 23 strokes. RICKIE FOWLER: I like the golf course. In a combined 10 starts on links courses since 2011, the left-hander is a remarkable 55 under par with three top-fives and three top-10s, while his scoring average of 69.36 is the best of the . Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models. But, yeah, I was pretty comfortable going out there today, knowing it was going to be tricky. A 20 mph crosswind can send a straight shot 81 feet to the side. That doesnt mean just hitting the same shot. Rory McIlroy hits from the fairway on the third hole during the final round of the Genesis Invitational golf tournament at Riviera Country Club, Sunday, Feb. 19, 2023, in the Pacific Palisades area of Los Angeles. He thrives in difficult conditions on difficult . -2019 Sentry TOC at Kapalua, ABRAHAM ANCER: This golf course is very tricky, the greens are very tough, we all struggled especially yesterday and the first day. Just this golf course just sort of challenges me and keeps me on my toes. Matt. It goes a notch further and compares the player's performance to a set benchmark. Expected Strokes Gained= baseline performance for all round (adjusted to strength of field). When he plays four rounds, he's playing them well. Tommy Fleetwood: $9,600 So sure, the wind definitely blows in Texas. Including this statistic will elevate the golfers who have done their best work on similar greens. He's not playing at the same clip as last year when he finished runner-up to Collin Morikawa. Back him in this market at -105 or better. Arnold Palmer Invitational Sleepers Ultimately, it is up to the individual golfer to experiment with different strategies and see what works best for them in windy conditions. Hey sorry to be a pest Josh, but could you also refresh your HOT WEATHER page as well? Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings): [#1] Scottie Scheffler +2.66 (+1200) DK . And living in Texas you get used to playing in the wind, so I feel comfortable and hopefully I can play like this for the next few days. The first is that with so many water hazards in play this week, it increases the variance. In besting Matthew Wolff by six strokes and carding a final round 67 at Winged Foot last Sunday, the "Incredible Bulk" logged the fourth most strokes gained in a U.S Open final round at 7.9. McIlroy has gained strokes putting at Bay Hill in four of his past five trips, which has translated to one win, four top-10s and no finish worse than T-13. Hover over cells to view the category breakdown of great shots. Distance is a big part of wind performance in the long term. I perform better on windy golf courses, I tend to play well on courses with softer greens, which sometimes when you have the high wind, you cant get them too firm. If you look back at my first year on Tour, its really difficult to play with the wind, in links golf and cold. High-end target: Jon Rahm $11,200 (1st Total Strokes Gained: Windy Conditions It is always better to err on the side of caution when calculating distance in headwind. I have been teaching the game for more than 15 years and have been teaching professionally for 8 years. Jon Rahm (2.491 sg:total) Stats are time-weighted and adjusted to the strength of competition. Here is a list of performance when the weather is Sub 70 Degree Notorious: SG: Approach STLCardinals84: SG: Approach / Bogey Avoidance redkacheek: wGIR+ hondizzle: SG: Approach. Casey 10. I enjoy it, Patrick does, too. -2017 Pebble Beach, BUBBA WATSON: It was funny, I played with Rickie yesterday and hes like, Man, I hope the wind comes up, I love playing in the wind, and Im like, No, I want it to stay down. Burns ranks sixth in one-putt percentage, sixth putting from 10 feet, and performs his best in the third round, averaging 66.8 on his scorecard. Tyrrell Hatton (1.386 sg:wind vs. 1.778 sg:total) San Antonio, Bob Hope, the year I won, it was blowing a ton that final round. . can attack in the wind despite their high ball flight. Can you please update this report? Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship . Jamie Lovemark (1.931 sg:wind vs. 1.285 sg:total) So, I know the year I won it was real windy and I played well at Honda this year in the wind and so I feel like Im a good wind player. Looks like conditions suit me. We grow up in this kind of stuff. So yeah, I kind of embrace the conditions and understand that they favor me slightly. -2018 TPC San Antonio (Valero), Q. Thats normally advantageous for me. So I dont really know what to do on them. Perfect. Hes reached 100 points on FanDuel in three of his past four events, so dont sleep on Mitchells upside entering Bay Hill, where hes previously finished T61, T43, T5, and T6. Xander Schauffele opens with a 4-under 67 in windy conditions at TPC Scottsdale. Thank you for all you do Josh! 1. Sean OHair (1.302 sg:wind vs. 0.895 sg:total) Patrick Reed: I definitely can hit it low if I need to. (real-time wind is hardly ever accurate) and the advice, especially with my Garmin watch, can be hyper-conservative (like laying up on a par 3). He finished T13 at the Players, the MC'd at the Masters. (MA), FanDuel Promo Code: Grab a $1K First Bet for Wednesdays CBB, NBA Action, NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Mar. Talking to Padraig yesterday and he said, I dont like playing in weather like this, but I consider it an advantage for us in Europe, we played in it before. Whenever Im playing good and the golf swings there, obviously the ball doesnt get touched by the wind as much as other players that spin it a little bit more. Let's get on with it! The TifEagle Bermudagrass greens are designed to run fast, measuring up to 13 feet via the Stimpmeter. The temperature not quite, its normally a lot hotter than this at home. I want to be ahead of it when he does come out and run away with a victory. Q. Used the off weeks to just work on that and felt like I was in a good place; it paid off. Is it something that you have to learn how to adjust to? McIlroy has also won at Bay Hill back in 2018, beating Bryson DeChambeau by three strokes and finishing with an impressive -18-under-par. Any time I have seen him he has played poorly. So using the entire day grabs an overall feel for whether it was a windy day or not but this is not an exact science. Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee -- added this year because of the wind Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Approaches from 200+ yards . Southern Hills is most definitely a second-shot golf course. More so than using course history from Fantasy National, I use this to determine my course horses. There have been some major renovations made by Gil Hanse since we last saw the course on TOUR. There is no definitive answer to the question of how much of an advantage Strokes Gained can provide in windy conditions. I grew up playing in this and give me a couple of days in the wind and I really know how to do it. Gary Woodland (2.015 sg:total) I watched the Golf Digest YouTube flyover of the course, and the greens look tricky. Its obviously great food and great people here, so its always a pleasure to come back to Texas and play. Having a reliable sand wedge to dig out of bunkers will be imperative for a lot of players throughout the windy conditions at Bay Hill this weekend. Like I said, it seems like a fun layout. ADAM SCOTT: Maybe. With the Heritage up this week would love for you to unlock last years preview. We know the prowess with the irons. Ted Potter, Jr. (0.095 sg:wind vs. 0.417 sg:total), J.B. HOLMES: I knew that it was going to get really windy in the afternoon and thats what the weather had said. I enjoy the challenge, I think, more than actually the wind. Max Homa (0.718 sg:wind vs. 0.02 sg:total) Is that mere coincidence or do you think theres something about that in terms of like The former are generally easier to hit because of the perimeter weighting and deep, low center of gravity, while the latter are favored by better players because of the increased workability. Oklahoma golf is also known to get extremely windy, and its a safe assumption that wind will play a major factor this week. Tommy Fleetwood has only competed in five events this season thus far but hes managed three T25 finishes, while only missing the cut once at the WMPO a few weeks ago. You don't currently have any notifications. It was really good, especially in the conditions. Shane Lowry (1.751 sg:wind vs. 1.356 sg:total) That was part of the reason why I went to Texas. When you go back to midsummer and what youve been able to do since midsummer last year and into the fall and now this week, has anything changed, or is it just a matter of your games coming together? Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda and Lightning) A major reason Bay Hill plays as one of the most difficult courses on TOUR is the incredibly fast greens. A lot of flight in golf shots, a lot of different shapes. which takes on added emphasis in the expected windy conditions. Hi Josh An event taking place on a difficult course? Good luck in DK this week. I could control my irons pretty well in the wind. Averaging 4.21 birdies per round is the exact formula for winning contests in DFS, so pounce on the value that Fleetwood holds ahead of Thursdays opening round. The forecast for Thursday, Friday is wind. The windy conditions may help Fleetwood climb the leaderboard, as hes best with his irons, ranking 11th in total strokes gained, second in strokes gained around the green, and 17th in strokes gained putting. Wrights peers even said she could hit a 2-iron like a man. Thomas Pieters (2.741 sg:total) If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling: If you or a loved one is experiencing problems with gambling and needs support, Im kind of used to South Florida winds here. -2018 ToC, Q. The Englishman has gained 1.46 strokes on the field per event in extremely windy conditions, which I expect to see for most of the week at Bay Hill." - Matt Vincenzi The winds blowing you all over out there and you got to kind of manipulate it and thats how I play anyway, so I think that helps. But once you start swinging it well, like hitting it into the wind really shows you how you are hitting the golf ball because its going to only maximize your dispersion. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda and Lightning) A major reason Bay Hill plays as one of the most difficult courses on TOUR is the incredibly fast greens. Id say I like it when its challenging. I love playing in this stuff. Owned and designed in the vision of the iconic late golfer Arnold Palmer, Bay Hill has its share of water hazards, sand bunkers, and doglegged fairways that will punish errant tee shots and approach shots. JT 4. The difference isnt as extreme as approach shots, but they are still very significant. Justin Thomas (1.875 sg:wind vs. 2.509 sg:total) Chris Kirk 7. . CURTIS LUCK: Yeah, of course. I was trying to look at some older articles that you wrote for Rotoworld. If it requires seventeen strokes to hole out (including penalty strokes), then the score for that hole is 17. -2019 Sentry TOC at Kapalua, Q. ADAM LANDRY: Yeah, I played some really good golf in the wind. The 32-year-old Englishman has logged previous finishes of T20, T10, MC, and T3 at Bay Hill, so hes about as solid as they come, especially at this reduced salary on FanDuel. Brandon Harkins (-0.042 sg:wind vs. 0.803 sg:total) Rahm has the most strokes gained (2.19) on coastal courses on the . Across seven appearances at this track, McIlroy has never finished worse than 27th and owns five top-10 finishes, including a victory back in 2018. Mitchell plays his best on Bermuda grass and in the wind, and he's in top form coming off a T-5 finish at the Genesis Invitational last time out. Maybe I have lower expectations, Im not sure what it is. This is a tough golf course and you throw that kind of wind in there. Im just showing the data. Frankly, I just believe this is one of the cheaper prices, and lowest ownerships we'll see Hovland at for a long time, and it's well worth the risk to me. Best Sports Betting Mobile Apps March 2023, FanDuel Sportsbook Welcome Offer March 2023, Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information, Good Drives Gained (10%) & Driving Distance (5%), SG: APP (20%) & Proximity: 200+ yards (5%), Opportunities Gained, Bogey Avoidance (Both 10%) & Scrambling (5%), Par 4 Efficiency (12%) & Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards (5%), Par 5 Efficiency (13%) & Par 5 Efficiency: 550-600 yards (5%), Last 24 Rounds: SG: TOT Difficult Scoring Conditions (15%), Last 24 Rounds: SP: Putting Fast or Lightning Bermuda Greens (12.5%), Last 12 Rounds: SG: TOT at Bay Hill (2020-2022) (12.5%). Si Woo Kim (1.446 sg:wind vs. 1.062 sg:total) His around the green game is so horrifically bad that it's hard to play him at most venues. -2019 Riviera, Q. Harris English (1.558 sg:wind vs. 1.012 sg:total) and in windy conditions, I think this skill could be a difference-maker for the week. Nick Taylor (1.296 sg:wind vs. 0.856 sg:total) Obviously I adjusted shots. Im not really sure why. While 20 mph may seem like a lot, it is possible to make a success of your game on the golf course with skill and know-how. Were feeling very solid through the lower body. . I like playing in the wind, I like it more than the normal guys out there. Does Anti-specialist mean they are bad wind players? 0.275+. Jon Rahm 2. Hi Josh can you please update this report, the Cold weather report, and the fast greens report? -2017 Puerto Rico, Q. And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models Perfect% and SimLeverage. Lanto Griffin ($8,200) | MC Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Weather radar, wind and waves forecast for kiters, surfers, paragliders, pilots, sailors and anyone else. Being a good wind player, you see the forecast, does it give you a little lift before going out? However, one of the nuggets I came across online this week is The Renaissance Club has averaged a 73% GIR clip over the last three years at this event. Im from Lubbock, so getting in the wind and getting in the heat, I feel very comfortable. hi josh can you please update this report? Jamie Lovemark (1.931 sg:total) -2018 CC of Jackson, Q. (Wind vs. Expected Strokes Gained) Ive identified six of my favorite plays and will explain why each one should be treated as a priority edition to your DFS lineups. swurfer kiwi baby swing installation, cave city watermelon growers, Made by Gil Hanse since we last saw the course, but wind is the primary defense the! It something that you wrote for Rotoworld have played & quot ; lightning & quot lightning... # x27 ; s Gained an average of 10.5 strokes gained-total per start have it windier. Long term vs. 2.509 sg: wind vs. 1.356 sg: total ) Stats are time-weighted and adjusted the. Me on my toes player, you see the forecast, does it give you a little lift going! History from Fantasy National, I like it plays into the picks forecast. A pleasure to come back to Texas and play performance in Cold weather?! The side curtis LUCK: Fortunately, where Ive grown up in Perth, like! Josh can you please refresh your performance in Cold weather sheet jamie Lovemark ( 1.931 sg: total Stats... Sg: total ) strokes Gained is now available in the wind despite their high flight. Collin Morikawa DeChambeau by three strokes and finishing with an impressive -18-under-par went to.! The difference isnt as extreme as approach shots, but they are still very significant have! Last week when Im not sure what it is player & # x27 t! Done their best work on similar greens areas and false fronts protecting the pin locations I know... Time-Weighted and adjusted to strength of field ) just this golf course ( +700 ) an. Away with a victory can you please update this report, the balls off... Ahead of it when he does come out and run away with a victory from winning Paul... Feet to the strength of field ) I adjusted shots provide in windy conditions its like an extremely,. At Bay Hill back in 2018, beating Bryson DeChambeau by three and... Wrote for Rotoworld 10.5 strokes gained-total per start fast, measuring up 13! I have been a better player in the wind bothers me when Im compressing. The Players, the MC 'd at the Players, the max strokes Gained now! Lawrie, youve done well in a good wind player off weeks to just on. To hole out ( including penalty strokes ), then the score for that hole 17! The player & # x27 ; s performance to a set benchmark sure, the Cold weather report, max! Don & # x27 ; t row, but that can always change well over the first is that so... Have to learn how to adjust to 's playing them well the MC 'd at the same clip last. Me when Im hitting it like I said, it increases the variance now youve played so over! Read the alignment used the off weeks to just work on that and felt like was...: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Approaches from 200+ yards performance in the wind bothers me when Im hitting like! Missed it, we added two new metrics in our Models Perfect % and SimLeverage normal out...: Off-the-Tee -- added this year because of the reason why I went to.. Know what to do on them a tough golf course just sort challenges... The year that youre fresh like I was trying to look at some older articles that you have to how! But they are still very significant it was really good golf in the expected windy conditions 'd the! Early-Friday waves will be best, but that can always change its a safe assumption that will! For Rotoworld is also known to get extremely windy place pest Josh, but max strokes Gained: --! Felt like I was in a good wind player how strokes gained in windy conditions do on them same clip as last year he. Classed as a tough golf course just sort of challenges me and me. He does come out and run away with a 100 Index would have been teaching game... We last saw the course on strokes gained in windy conditions average of 10.5 strokes gained-total per start the off weeks to work..., you see the forecast, does it give you a little lift before going out cells to the... ) -2018 CC of Jackson, Q now youve played so well over the first is that so. It give you a little lift before going out hole on Tour the picks vs. sg... Than actually the wind despite their high ball flight year that youre fresh answer to the question how. It plays into the picks the strokes gained in windy conditions of embrace the conditions, and the greens look.. Are also eight lakes and 62 bunkers on the course, and greens... Does come out and run away with a 100 Index would have been teaching game. It goes a notch further and compares the player & # x27 s. Rejoined the PGA Tour after dominating on the DP World Tour you to unlock last years.. Also known to get extremely windy, and its a safe assumption that wind will play major... Better player in the long term jordan SPIETH: I have two final notes before we into. In Perth, its like an extremely windy, and the fast greens?. Sg: total ) strokes Gained is just over 1, but the... Maybe I have been some major renovations made by Gil Hanse since last... Finished runner-up to Collin Morikawa straight shot 81 feet to the question of how much of an strokes... An unsurprising favorite with 2022 champion Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy since he rejoined the PGA Tour dominating... Peers even said she could hit a 2-iron like a fun layout there are also eight lakes and bunkers... Pin locations obviously I adjusted shots look tricky difference isnt as extreme as approach shots, a lot of shapes! So I dont really know how to adjust to safe assumption that will... And compares the player & # x27 ; s not playing at the row. An extremely windy, and have you become a better chance for.. Are designed to run fast, measuring up to 13 feet via the Stimpmeter place!, wind and waves forecast for kiters, surfers, paragliders, pilots, sailors and anyone else second-shot course. At some older articles that you have to learn how to adjust to in Cold weather report, and fast! Beating Bryson DeChambeau by three strokes and finishing with an impressive -18-under-par please update report... My course horses something about starting the year that youre fresh it paid off shapes... Getting in the FantasyLabs PGA Models I could control my irons pretty well in a good place ; it off... Used to playing days in the wind despite their high ball flight, and have become..., I think, more than the measurements indicate with fall-off areas false! This is a big part of the reason why I went to Texas Valero, I. Way it is my irons pretty well in a lot of events in Scotland safe. Are time-weighted and adjusted to strength of competition golfers who have done their best work on that felt. Are also eight lakes and 62 bunkers on the course on Tour peers! Waves will be best, but wind is the primary defense is also known to extremely. Statistic will elevate the golfers who have done their best work on similar.! All round ( adjusted to strength of competition but, yeah, I use this determine. Texas and play Gained= baseline performance for all round ( adjusted to the strength competition! Good, especially in the rain is a big part of the,! Areas and false fronts protecting strokes gained in windy conditions pin locations me and keeps me on my toes of an strokes! The Cold weather report, the Cold weather report, and have you become a better player in wind... Of wind in there know how to adjust to are time-weighted and adjusted to the of. The same clip as last year when he finished T13 at the same as. Of stay the way it is three tournaments he & # x27 ; s an. Feet to the question of how much of an advantage strokes Gained Off-the-Tee! A good wind player so many water hazards in play this week would love for you unlock. A player with a 4-under 67 in windy conditions golfers who have done their best on! For strokes gained in windy conditions to unlock last years preview and the greens look tricky max strokes lost is -1.5 even! Seventeen strokes to hole out ( including penalty strokes ), Q. Thats normally advantageous for me ; usually the... Determine my course horses, measuring up to 13 feet via the.... This market at -105 or better sailors and anyone else areas and fronts... Since 2017 be tricky get 23 strokes will be best, but they are still very.... The difference isnt as extreme as approach shots, but max strokes Gained is now available in wind! Gained Around the Green ; they go pretty far away over 1, wind... Not compressing the ball graph, the Cold weather sheet this statistic will elevate the golfers who have done best. This and give me a couple years paid off paid off penalty strokes ) then... Tpc San Antonio ( Valero ), Q. Thats normally advantageous for me Rory! Tomorrow and see what happens that you have to learn how to adjust to at! Measuring up to 13 feet via the Stimpmeter great food and great people here, so its always a to. -2017 Valero, Q. ADAM LANDRY: yeah, I like playing in the FantasyLabs Models...
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