The more surprising the outcome would be, the lower the prior probability and the stronger the logic of the argument. Even eliminating four violent deaths (all men, two of them murders), the 53 percent death rate for men far exceeded the 29 percent rate for women. Which of the following statements is true of an explanatory Theories are hypotheses that have been proved. Step 5. Which occurs more frequentlyburglars or butterfingers? Sit down before fact as a little child, be prepared to give up every preconceived notion, follow humbly wherever and to whatever abysses nature leads or you shall learn nothing. They must satisfy the correct form condition, but, like every other inductive argument, they would be logical failures were that their only success; they must also satisfy the total evidence condition. Which of the following statements is true of an explanatory Weban explanatory hypothesis for a natural phenomenon that is exceptionally well supported by empirical data. But explanatory arguments are inductive arguments. a. WebApplying your knowledge of the scientific method, which of the following BEST explains the correct contrast between a hypothesis and theory? So I add the premise. In a short paragraph, identify the explanation, discuss why it may be unfalsifiable, and explain how this results in a problem with the first part of the total evidence condition. Instrumental aggression is aggression occurring. Without using a calculator, find P100P^{100}P100. Which of the following exemplifies the unconditional positive regard component of client-centered therapy? Exploratory research is defined as a research used to investigate a problem which is not clearly defined. Admit it. Scientists initially were properly skeptical of the theory that they came from the sky, but the development of an account of how meteorites were jettisoned by asteroids and comets provided a conceptual framework that made sense, with the prior probability of the explanation rising accordingly. This tentative explanation can either be proved or disproved by carrying out tests or experiments. S2 Biology; Chapter 6-the tour of the cell, Chapter 10: The Origins and Diversification o, CoffeebeansaddedduringMay,10,900pounds, Elliot Aronson, Robin M. Akert, Timothy D. Wilson. Can appear to reveal links between two phenomena that do not actually exist. Why, that he was a retired sergeant of Marines. . Hypotheses are guesses; theories are correct answers. e. neglectful. These youngsters had, in fact, been selected at random from among their classmates. With total restriction of fluids, death follows in 24 hours. Recall, from Chapter 13, that larger margins of error make it much more probable that the conclusion of an inductive generalization is true; there is a much greater chance that between 50 percent and 60 percent of the voters favor Jones than there is that exactly 55 percent of them do. A. Healthy people who rate their health as poor know enough about their health to know that they are not as healthy as healthy people who rate their health as excellent. Given that they are elderly and in the low end of the healthy group, they will die sooner. The second part of the total evidence condition requires that you exercise the same imaginative powers as the arguer; for you must imagine which explanations would be the most credible alternatives to the one argued for. So an argument of this sort is probably just a logical mistake, not an explanatory argument. A friend told me that Thai food is especially effective for those who are on a diet. I would be following the same strategy if I introduced you to a student of mine and declared that she had special coin-tossing skill, proven by the fact that she has just now, on demand, tossed heads five times in a row. . The plumber explanation is burdened with improbabilities: The answer in each case is very infrequently. Unlike the case of Halleys comet, the observable outcomesa blue anchor on his hand, a military carriage, regulation side-whiskers, an air of commandare where the reasoning begins. Competition for food among finches on Galapagos causes the extremes in beak sizes. Which system accumulates the costs for each department or process within the factory? In ancient Greece, when there was a difficult decision to be made, the wealthy Greeks would sometimes travel to Delphi and consult the oracle therean oracle who, it was believed, had special powers to foresee the future. Which of the following shows the correct order for a scientific explanation? It describes why the individual is having problems. Deduce what? said he, petulantly. I found a Thai restaurant and now I go there for lunch every day. But it is highly probable, whether my theory is true or false, that the reviews will be good or bad or somewhere in between. Scientists were right to reject these formerly offbeat views until they could make good sense of them, and they will be right to reject the paranormal, ancient astronauts, and homeopathic medicine until they can also make good sense of them. He had a maritime tattoo, a military carriage, regulation side-whiskers, and an air of command. correlated, but not causal. Scientists rejected Newton, they rejected continental drift, they rejected meteorites, and they were wrong! A set of analytical and mathematical tools designed to further the understanding of numerical data. One habitat, selected at random, was sprayed with insecticide, and the other was used as a control. Although neither sort of argument has a logical advantage over the other, certain sorts of evaluative questions can be asked of one but not of the other. Due to this defect, it took an especially rich array of observable outcomes and an especially compelling theoretical simplicity for it to gain rational acceptance. One test is to ask whether it offers only as many explanatory entities as needed. e. a and c, In the case study of head football coach Tom Martinez, Coach Martinez dealt with the area of aggressive play by In a window on one side was a burning Molotov cocktail. Premise 1 is probably true. For exactly the same reason, we can hardly consider astrology to be supported when someone finds that the days horoscope has some truth in it; horoscopes are worded so vaguely that there are almost always events that can be interpreted as making them true. An arson investigator said the man offered an explanation: The suspect said that he was using the gas to start his car and that he felt the jug was too full so he poured out some of the gasoline near the building. Lucy should specialize in ________ psychology. Which aspect of the scientific method occurs first? a. reactive versus instrumental WebApplying your knowledge of the scientific method, which of the following BEST explains the correct contrast between a hypothesis and theory? To put it more generally, to say that an explanation or an outcome is unfalsifiable is to say that any observation at all is consistent with the explanation. Ideally, the explanation contains a cohesive and cogent understanding of the origins of the problems, the conditions that perpetuate them, the obstacles interfering with their solution, and the resources available to address them. b. e. Raise the level of coaching, with an emphasis on fair play, especially with younger athletes. This means that an unusually good performance would typically be followed by a poorer onereturning downward to the meanand that an unusually bad performance would typically be followed by a better oneagain returning to the mean, but this time upward. c. Small-scale, on-the-field aggressive acts serve as triggers for crowd aggression. When desperately needed money arrives mysteriously in the mail, that is support for Romans 8:28. a. instinct theory observation - question - hypotheses - predictions - results of investigation - conclusions Which are true of a hypothesis? The scientific method can be more powerful than other ways of knowing because it is more: By applying scientific thinking, one should be able to: Determine whether eating more meat makes you grow taller. An explanatory argument contends that certain facts can best be explained by a certain theory, and thus that the theory must be true. Improved outcome: An image looking like the outline of the Virgin Mary was seen on the wall of a house, and it remained there when the window of the neighboring house was opened. a. assertive behavior. Explanatory Impotence Explanatory impotence is the opposite of explanatory power. Explanatory argumentan argument whose correct form, assuming that P is the explanation and Q is the observable outcome, is this: The first premise states that the explanation really does enable you to predict the observable outcomethat it really is an outcome. The first part of the total evidence condition is that the observable outcome must have a low prior epistemic probability. A hypothesis is a tentative explanation . Singular explanationan explanation that is designed to apply only to a single thing or event. Being a plumber, I was summoned to the home of an attractive woman to repair a faulty shower nozzle that was spraying water all over her bathroom. We are the only two people in this apartment. A theory with great explanatory power makes few assumptions, has significant predictive power and helps to reduce uncertainty in a precise and accurate way. The explanation must, at a minimum, be falsifiable. One emphasizes the power of suggestion as a psychological process; if faith can heal, despair can kill. My wife calls mePapa Bear. These crops are laid down in these sensational patterns by an energy that is of a high level of intelligence. Alas, two British painters finally confessed that they had perpetrated the hoax over a 13-year period simply by pulling around flat, four-foot planks by hand with reins to topple over the stalks. A theory predicts events in a broad, general context; a hypothesis makes a specific prediction about a specified set of circumstances. d. Aggression facilitates performance only in team-sport athletes. And if regulation side-whiskers were all the rage, they would not indicate that the man was a sergeant in the marines. b. Be careful not to confuse explanatory arguments with deductive arguments that commit the fallacy of affirming the consequent. c. Aggression will occur only if socially learned cues signal that it is appropriate to be aggressive in a particular situation. This interlocks with the test, under the preceding improbable-outcome criterion, of asking whether an explanation for the outcome already exists. The following are illustrative examples of explanatory power. Influenced by the confirmation bias, you proposed a number that would confirm your preferred answer. Some explanations will eventually measure up to the standards of good reasoning; that is no reason to eliminate the standards. Explanatory arguments come in several varieties. There are two types of hypothesis. But, as Hempel suggests, that is not all they requirethey require imagination. About a month later this letter appearedreally: Dear Abby: The letter from the traveling man who spends five days a week on the road interested me. As with our other inductive arguments, the total evidence condition for logical success has two parts. Step 1. To be useful in the scientific method, an observation must be: Despite all the intellectual analyses the scientific method gives rise to and objective conclusions it makes possible, it CANNOT. The second part of the total evidence condition for explanatory arguments shifts attention from the improbability of the outcome to the probability of the explanation. What is the prior probability of this alternative? This is what happened with Torricellis hypothesis. b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. For the explanatory arguments below, (i)identify the explanation, and (ii)consider its prior probability from the point of view of the makes-sense testpaying special attention to the alternative explanations. A later investigation showed that there was indeed a correlation between TM and warmer weather, but an even stronger correlation between TM and the preceding afternoons forecast of warmer weather for the next day. If this turns out to be true, it provides much better support for the explanation since it rules out the gravity alternative. The reading in Paris, at sea level, was 30 inches; at the base of the Puy-de-Dome, at 1,300 feet, it was about 28.7 inches; and at the mountains peak, at 4,800 feet, it was about 25.2 inches. If a researcher uses the same experimental setup as another study to collect data, but uses different research subjects, it is considered. Frustration produces increased anger or pain. Web16.4 Summary of Chapter Sixteen. b. frustration-aggression theory Explanations, to recall Chapter 2, are not necessarily arguments. Statistics and Probability questions and answers, Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? This result can be explained by the fact that because the teachers expected them to do well, their perceptions of each students ability rose and those childrens own self-image was enhanced. David Lewis and James Greene, Thinking Better. He has just come from the tropics, for his face is dark, and that is not the natural tint of his skin, for his wrists are fair. Dear Pete: Sorry, no help from this corner for a plumber who cant keep track of his pipes. The opposition has annoyed them. A comet with an orbit similar to the 1530 and 1606 comets did appear in December 1758. And if you had been wrongand you would have been wrongyou would have had the chance to correct the error of your ways. b. athletes view aggressive acts as more appropriate in society than in the sport environment What was the primary conclusion of Stanley Milgram's obedience research? Explanatory/ Causal /Bivariate Hypothesis. It takes the same form as the fallacy of affirming the consequent, but the two are easy to distinguish; an explanatory argument, unlike the deductive fallacy, depends not only on form, but also on the total evidence, for logical support. Which of the following have shown the strongest relationship? Nevertheless, smart people suffer lapses of rationality and allow themselves to be persuaded that a man like Uri Geller has special powers because he can perform feats that any practiced illusionist can performand can detect. The fallacy of affirming the consequent is a fallacy only of arguments that rely solely on form for their logical successthat is to say, it is a fallacy of deductive arguments. We do know, however, that deception of this sort happensthat there are entertainers who work very hard at producing illusions like this, and they can make a lot of honest money at it. But if Halley was right about Newtons views, there would be detectable regularitiescertain comets would be found to follow fixed elliptical orbits around the sun. General explanation. This is no problem if your subjective expectations are exactly in accord with the evidence. It included an account of the physical laws that govern the interactions of the planets, stars, and other heavenly bodies. The term prior, in this case, means that the probability calculation must be done prior to your making any judgment about the explanation itself and prior to your making any observations pertinent to the observable outcome. The sentence A comet with an orbit similar to the 1530 and 1606 comets will appear in December 1758 is the observable outcome, that which the explanation enables us to predict and to better understand. It makes no statement with respect to causation. c. athletes have higher moral development than nonathletes Dear Abby was a newspaper advice column with a readership of over 110 million in the late 20th Century. For a solution to be termed a scientific hypothesis, it has to be an idea that can be supported or refuted through carefully crafted experimentation or observation. Which of the following would be classified as an aggressive act? But they differ from inductive generalizations in an important way. I recently organized a small test of this hypothesis. Examples from the text are The butler did it or The man was a Marine sergeant. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004 Soles That rock just smells like Mars, says Robert Pepin of the University of Minnesota. To illustrate how this strategy is related to the prior epistemic probability of the outcome, suppose I propose the following fanciful explanation: I am bewitched, so that gravity has no affect on me whatsoever; the only reason I am able to walk around on the ground is because of magical shoes that counteract the bewitchment when I wear them. And so I do. Web1) Direct observation of phenomena, empirically testable hypotheses, and the ability to rule out rival hypotheses are all essential tenets of the ________. c. Hypotheses usually are relatively narrow in scope; theories have broad explanatory power. causation. Dear Papa Bear: Its just a wild guess, but I think somebodys been sleeping in your bed. But the extremely high prior probability of the outcome renders the argument logically useless. Neither the researchers nor the study's participants know who is receiving the drug and who is receiving the placebo. ________ is a perspective within psychology that emphasizes the potential for good that is innate to all humans, proposing a hierarchy of human needs in motivating behavior. ], There are extremes in beak sizes on Galapagos finches, there is no relevant difference in food from island to island, and in conditions, What prehistoric culture created the huge and magnificent likeness of George Bernard Shaw that is topographically sculpted on the southern tip of an island in the Leaf River in northern Quebec? Explanatory/ Causal /Bivariate Hypothesis. There are, however, several useful strategies that we will discuss next. Bandura's research showed that children who saw adult models commit violent acts repeated those acts more than children who were not exposed to such aggressive models. c. undesirable But there is a viable alternative explanation for this outcomenamely, Escaping from a shipwreck is largely a matter of luck, shipwrecks having little regard for passengers religious beliefs. For each of the following conclusions, create two arguments: an argument that (in normal circumstances) commits the fallacy of affirming the consequent and an explanatory argument. Here is an example from Arthur Conan Doyles A Study in Scarlet; Dr. Watson is querying Sherlock Holmes about what he deducedusing the term more broadly than we are using it in this text. WebSchedule 1 - Dictionary . a. how to be rough and tough without getting thrown out of the game. Men were exposed more frequently to the elements, since they did the hunting and tree cutting. [1001]. Step 2. D. It excludes the presumption of What is the name given to this step of the scientific method? [5] A graph of these results, representing our evidence in this case, looks like this. d. a and b. e. a and c. b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. Suppose I am encouraging you in your fledgling acting career and argue, You are so talented that all the critics who dont praise you are just jealous. Frustration increases the likelihood of aggression. B. Sales of vegetarian foods vary by season. But when, having slept in the car, your friend says, This water boiled quickly, so we must be well above sea level, this is offered as a reason to believe that we are well above sea level. Vague outcomes are likely to have a high prior probability and thus are likely to signal that the argument is logically weak. ], [1001]\begin{bmatrix} The MIU supplier of concrete had required MIU to give one days notice of the need for concrete, but never agreed to provide it for the next day until first referring to the National Weather Service. An intellectual activity, encompassing observation, description, experimentation, and explanation of natural phenomena. Please give like. Galileo, Torricellis contemporary, attempted to test this by carrying a crude barometer to the top of a tall building, but the difference in the barometric reading between the base and the top of the building was negligible. . [6] The probability of two consecutive years of success is no higher than .50 times .50, or .25. Although there is no formula for deciding on the improbability of the outcome, there are some helpful strategies that you can follow in making your decision. I think it might be haunted. More subtle examples are easy to find. In an experiment, the group of subjects not exposed to the treatment being studied but otherwise treated identically to the experimental group. It always does reappear after an eclipse when much noise occurs. Complete each The other roots the power of suggestion in physiology: extreme fright and despair disrupt the sympathetic nervous system and paralyze body functions. But suppose I offer the alternative explanation that air pressure is highly irregular but that it so happens that barometric pressure nevertheless would be 30 inches at 0 feet, 28.7 inches at 1,300 feet, 28.2 inches at 1,800 feet, 27.2 inches at 2,800 feet, 26.2 inches at 3,800 feet, and 25.2 inches at 4,800 feet. C. It's correlated, but not causal. The university acted as its own contractor, and construction was pushed forward regardless of weather conditions. Until then, the argument is no better than a product of Keys own imagination. Is the frequently observed, poorly understood, phenomenon that people tend to respond favorably to any treatment. a person's unconscious. For a solution to be termed a scientific hypothesis, it has to be an idea that can be supported or refuted through carefully crafted experimentation or observation. What is explained in an explanatory argument; the observable outcome follows from the explanation and can in a certain way, at a certain time, and under certain conditions, be seen, heard, smelled, tasted, or touched. An explanatory hypothesis for a natural phenomenon that is exceptionally well supported by empirical data. The achievement is all the more remarkable when you consider that the mysterious sculptors created their masterpiece millennia before the existence of their subject. Which of the following statements best distinguishes hypotheses from theories in science? D. It excludes the presumption of causation. Hundreds of people gathered for a second night Wednesday to see an image described as the outline of the Virgin Mary on a wall of an empty house in Hanover Township, Pa. c. fans are not affected in terms of aggressive tendencies by watching a sporting event The point is not that the world is necessarily simple, any more than the world is necessarily filled only with frequently occurring or nonmysterious things. The funds that fail are closed, and the manager of the one that succeeds is advertised widely. . If higher expectations by teachers and by themselves causes students to perform better, then randomly selected students whom teachers believefalselyto have greater potential end up performing better. Best be explained by a certain theory, and construction was pushed forward regardless weather. Not an explanatory hypothesis suggestion as a control problem if your subjective expectations are exactly in accord with test... 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